The idea that history has repetitive patterns is nothing new. However, in Neil Howe’s recent book, The Fourth Turning is Here, he details a compelling framework based on generational or demographic patterns. He breaks these cycles into four seasons each being driven by a particular demographic cohort or generation. He argues that although the specific circumstances that form each generation change, there are common characteristics and attitudes that reoccur.
These similarities define each generation, which in turn predictably impacts the patterns we see throughout history. These four generational cohorts drive the four seasons of history. Each season lasts for approximately 20 years resulting in roughly an 80-year cycle.
It is interesting to note that each cycle is as long as an individual’s life span. This means that most people experience all four seasons, just at different times in their development. Therefore, each generation is impacted and molded by the seasons in different ways and contribute something unique to each season. He contends that in 2008 society entered the winter season — triggered by the Great Financial Crises (GFC). In his model the winter season always culminates in great turmoil-social unrest, distrust of institutions, economic distress, political fracturing and war. Going back approximately 80 years, the last winter season in the United States
began with the 1929 stock market crash and culminated with WWII. Before that the winter season culminated in the US Civil War, and so on.
Assuming these powerful observations are correct, it is interesting to consider the art produced by each generation during these dramatic winter seasons when the trajectory of society shifts. How does each generation experience crises and turmoil? How does that experience impact their ideas, emotions, aspirations and the work they produce? I have been keeping a visual journal for over 30 years and complete 1-3 small works every day. Looking back, I can now see these historical and generational patterns reflected in my own work. Regardless of our ability to clearly decern the time in which we live or predict future events, most of us sense growing conflict, distrust, turmoil, tension and uncertainty. The image above is one of my many journal entries, entitled Morrison Hill, and completed during this winter season.