Most are familiar with the story of the frog being cooked in a pot of water. The frog isn’t aware it’s being cooked because the water heats up gradually — in imperceivable increments. The point at which the frog can no longer escape the pot could be considered the “event horizon.” The term “event horizon” was developed by scientists studying black holes. They defined the event horizon as the outer boundary of a black hole where light is no longer fast enough to escape its gravitational influence.
Malcom Gladwell wrote about a similar phenomenon in his book The Tipping Point — when an idea, trend or social behavior crosses a threshold and goes viral. Others have made similar observations in the areas of demographics, economics and politics. Often these moments of fundamental transformation catch people off guard unless they have been closely tracking the critical markers of change. It is easy for these moments to remain hidden before they become visible — at which point it is too late to change direction or take corrective action.
Conversely, we are also familiar with various prognosticators crying wolf, sounding the alarm of our impending doom — a doom that never materializes, at least within a reasonable timeframe. Regardless, the passing of time, when seen clearly and accurately, can be startling.
For example, looking in a mirror and comparing yourself with a photo taken decades earlier or watching your children grow up and eventually start their own careers and families. This is the feeling I got when I recently saw this photograph of the UNLV campus taken in 1957. I moved to Las Vegas and began working at UNLV in 2009 and am amazed at the changes that have occurred here since my arrival. I recently had the privilege of speaking with an elderly gentleman who was born and raised in Las Vegas. He had vivid memories of Las Vegas in the mid ’50s when the population hovered around 56,000. It is reported that the Las Vegas metro area currently is home to approximately 2.3 million residents who host over 30 million visitors each year. Few individuals have personally witnessed this community’s staggering transformation, and with each passing year there are fewer that truly comprehend the magnitude of these changes.
i like that term “event horizon” David. I don’t often think about the “no turning back now” concept. I recall taking a required course in the SLIDE RULE my first years of architecture at ISU in Iowa. That was an easy 2 credit out of the way. But that was the last year that class was a requirement. The next year the Hewlett Packard Scientific hand held calculator was in every engineering students hands. The cell phone (once a brick) is now in every persons hands. Technology is like a black hole!!!!!!!